Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Republican Party Projected To Pick Up 6 State Attorney General Seats on November 2

/PRNewswire/ -- Republicans may pick up as many as six state Attorney General seats on November 2, according to Joseph Kastner, Ballotpedia's state Attorney General elections editor.

Kastner says that Attorney General seats currently held by Democrats in Arizona, California, Georgia, Kansas, Ohio, and Oklahoma are in the "leans Republican" or "likely Republican" column based on factors that include polls and campaign funding.

Heading into November 2, the Democratic Party holds the AG position in 32 states, while the GOP holds it in just 18.

However, only 30 of the 50 state attorney general seats are up for election in 2010. In the 30 states with 2010 attorney general elections, Democrats hold 20 seats and Republicans hold 10.

If the GOP picks up six seats as projected, holding all its "safe, likely and leans" elections, it will win 57% of the 30 November elections. It will also then be in possession of 24 state AG seats altogether, while the Democratic Party, if it holds all its "safe, likely or leans" Democratic seats, will be at 25.

Just one state, Iowa, is in the toss-up column, according to Kastner's analysis. Iowa's AG position, currently occupied by a Democrat, could go either way. The Iowa Attorney General election pits incumbent Tom Miller against Republican challenger Brenna Findley. According to Kastner, Iowa's race is "one of the toughest to predict" because of limited polling information in the down-ballot race. GOP challenger Findley has significantly outperformed Miller in the money sweepstakes since mid-summer which may enable her to be competitive with Miller's incumbency and name-recognition advantage.

If the "leans/likely" elections come in where projected for Democrats and Republicans, then toss-up Iowa is the state to watch to see if the final national tally is 26 D–24 R, or a 25-25 split.

Two attorney general offices are likely to get a new occupant as a result of their 2010 gubernatorial election, because in these states, the AG is appointed by the governor. Hawaii currently has a Republican governor, but is thought to be a gubernatorial pick-up opportunity for the Democratic Party in 2010. The reverse is true in Wyoming. is sponsored by the non-profit, non-partisan Lucy Burns Institute (LBI) based in Madison, Wisconsin.

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